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By Natalie Willis, Reporter, Valley Ag Voice 

The California Air Resources Board voted to amend its Low Carbon Fuel Standard program on Nov. 8. The LCFS updates aim to reduce the carbon intensity of California’s transportation fuel pool by 30% by 2030 and by 90% by 2045 while increasing zero-emissions infrastructure, a CARB press release explained.  

According to a report the board released on Sept. 8, 2023, increased fuel standards are estimated to increase gas prices by 47 cents per gallon by 2025. However, a study released by the University of Pennsylvania’s Kleinman Center for Energy Policy on October 7, 2024, found that tightened fuel standards will increase fuel prices by 65 centers per gallon in 2025.  

In a media briefing on Oct. 25, CARB staff claimed that its 2023 report — the Standardized Regulatory Impact Assessment — does not predict gas prices.  

“We are not aware of any economic model that can predict gas prices with certainty, for many complex reasons, including that how oil producers pass down compliance costs to consumers is a business decision they make,” CARB staff stated. 

CARB staff also explained that environmental programs and other government-related factors are not the primary drivers behind retail gas price increases. Yet, according to the study by Danny Cullenward, climate economist, lawyer, and senior fellow with the Kleinman Center for Energy Policy, the regulation aims for rapid target reductions and higher credit prices, which will significantly raise fuel costs in the future. 

“Rather than discuss these implications openly, the regulator has distanced itself from its own initial assessment and even suggested it is not possible to project cost impacts going forward. To fill the resulting analytical void, I update the regulator’s original cost calculations based on the latest regulatory proposal,” Cullenward stated. “If LCFS credit prices reach their maximum allowed levels, as has occurred in the past, then retail gasoline price impacts could be $0.65 per gallon in the near term, $0.85 per gallon by 2030, and nearly $1.50 per gallon by 2035.” 

Prior to CARB’s action on Nov. 8, Representatives David Valadao and Michelle Steel led the entire California Republican Congressional delegation in a letter to CARB, requesting the unelected agency delay their vote on amendments to LCFS until transparency is provided on how changes will impact gas prices. 

“Californians are already paying the highest gas prices in the nation because of our state’s gas tax,” Congressman Valadao said. “It is unacceptable that unelected bureaucrats at CARB are attempting to quietly pass new rules that will raise gas prices even more for Central Valley families. I strongly urge CARB to delay this vote until they provide a full and complete analysis of how their actions will impact gas prices for consumers.” 

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